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. >> absolutely. the message is also very clear. we are here because we follow policies dictated by germany. therefore, italy should come out of the straight jacket. this is the message that berlusconi is sending to italians and actually, i think, it's a message that he will use for our campaigns. >> how much support will he get if he's at 15% right now in the polls 12347. >> my concern is that he could actually create some allians with other -- with the populist leaders. there is a lot of discontent and it's quite easy to capture the discontent. it would provide a majority for ruining the country, for governing the country, but it will not enough to destabilize the debate. they say the p.w. trust say that 30% now say the euro has been a good thing in italy. i don't know whether you back that sort of trust. >> oolt r it's how you present it. there is a clear fact that going down economically for a long time. it hasn't had good growth in more than a decade. so more now are in the face in malaise. at the moment, we don't see that. >> what do you take for investors? >> we've already had issues
warned of a possible recession in germany. central bank cutting its growth forecast for the eurozone's biggest economy and that expects growth to reach just 0.4% in 2013. a big cut from previous forecasts of 1% and 1.6%. there's also no political crisis in italy by the way. support has been withdrawn for the group run by monti. berlusconi hinted he may return to politics after stepping down last year. claudia joins us in milan. a number of reports suggested this may not upset investors too much just because we were going to have elections anyway, it doesn't bring it forward a lot earlier. is that the sense that you're getting? >> yes, it doesn't really change in terms of the timing. it just gives you an idea, though, of where berlusconi stands and what the situation is like within that central right next. the pdl has made it clear that there is a serious disagreement within the party. they were set to go forward with some primaries which is what the center left did to elect their candidate. and now that berlusconi has abruptly announced that he's going back, that tells you there is a
markets incidentally, too. bond markets, the fixed income markets, here we're seeing buying in germany at the moment and 10-year german bund around 3%. a little bit of buying into the gild as well as some of the safe haven trades back on. we have this italian bond auction. the first one is going to be settled in 2013 and the last one in this year, as well. it's thought that it is going to see solid demand given that it hasn't gotten any trouble getting off the ground as of late with those bond auctions, as well. a quick wrap on the forex market. here you're looking at selling in the euro/dollar right now. 1.3190. we're flirting with the high level of this trading range that we've been stuck in. dollar/yen, it's thought when this new japanese government coming into place, they're simulating the economy and to make sure a weaker yen is in place, as well. kelly. >> louisa, thanks. we're keeping an eye on gold today. could the precious metal be losing its luster come 2013? we'll find out why kuts has decided to cut exposure to the precious metal for the first time. >>> hello, everybody. we
to get the latest news. looking for confidence out of germany's ifo survey. if we can put it up on the screen, that would be a help as i'm working to get it up at the moment. as soon as we get the numbers on that front, i will bring them to you. looks like we're still waiting on that. in the meantime, send in your thoughts, questions and comments about the program to worldwide@cnbc.com. and the biggest news of the morning, we have a deal. after 14 hours of talkes and months of negotiations, an agreement has been reached on a pan european banking supervisor. european finance ministers say they've drawn up plans to allow the ecb to directly supervisor the three largest banks in each country except for the uk and sweden which have both opted out. european leaders need to give their seal of approval and silvia wadhwa is in brussels with the latest. sylvia, it sounds like the meeting went into the late hours of the night. it sounds like the uk and sweden got their way. how significant is this agreement? >> the early hours of the morning. one may wonder whether that's good news for sw
. among those closed include spain and germany. we're start with asia. shanghai composite is the outperformer. you saw up 1.6% there. here is a list of the markets closed across europe. germany, switzerland, germany and austria. for the bourses that are open, we can take a look at performance this morning and then we'll take a look over at the bond wall. the ftse 100 is down about .4%. ibex down .5%. not a clear picture. definitely mixed trade as people look to close out the year. the bond wall gives the sense for what kind of wall dominates. we're seeing bond yields move higher. investors are exiting the asset class today. italy around the 4.5% level. we've seen these predominant for several weeks and likely a quick check on forrus. the yen, an important one to keep an eye on, as well. dollar/yen firmer, continuing the patterns that we've seen over the last couple of trading sessions. for more on what to expect from markets today, we're joined by chris meyer, managing director and chief strategist from loop capital markets. chris, good morning. we wake up without a deal.
processing firms are leading the recovery. >>> and germany's latest exports seems to be recession proof. it's a tradition dating back to the middle ages, but germany's christmas markets are more popular than ever. nbc's andy eckh artson sends this report. >> every december, music rix out across girlny's favorite christmas market. berlin alone hosts more than 80 markets, each with its own character where the sights, sounds and smells of christmas combine to keep your financial crisis at bay. >> we don't feel a crisis. when you look around here at the christmas market, you meet so different people from germany and it's so popular to come to berlin. christmas season is present season. >> over the past 20 years, germany's christmas markets have become a big attraction and big business. analysts estimate that the german christmas market industry brings in billions of dollars annually. for many small businesses and traditional craftsmen, the markets are the main source of income for the year. makia, one of only ten mammoth ivory carvers in germany has seen his annual turnover grow since 2003. eve
to get the latest results from germany's survey any second now. in the meantime, i can can bring you news. for example, on industrial orders and sales in italy, orders flat on the month, down .2 on the month for sales and down nearly 5% on the year. so confirming some of the weakness that we know we've seen previously in the italian economy. meanwhile, another gauge perhaps for the euro as we look to the strength of it lately. that's the current counselor plus which in october was an adjusted 3.9 billion euros, up quite a bit from the 2.5 billion reported for september. now that also comes after -- a day after the european union's report suggesting that in fact the european union would have to run a surplus, given its poor demographics over the next couple of years. now let's get a quick preview of the news. for that we head to patricia, awaiting the results. what do we expect to see? >> reporter: we're expecting the second consecutive month to the upside for the business sentiment next year in germany. november was a surprise after six months to the downside. we expect december to book i
is fascinating bearing in mind where we are in terms of the macro story and germany might well be floating -- >> certainly a big departure in the sense that the german stock market has typically traded in line with the german economy and this is a big divergence. so that's a change. but looking over time, all stocks have the component of what they call the economic return. speculative return which is it for change and the valuation that the market puts on it. over time, one is a possum gain and the other is zero sum gain. sometimes good news, sometimes bad news. but over time the kind of net being nothing. >> we'll see what happens. good to have you on. we'll be out in westminster, joined by the british shadow business secretarier to. we'll talk currencies. find out why one strategist is bullish on the currency. after the ramp up in m&a that we've seen this year, we'll also speak to an expert in los angeles that says the fundamentalses for deal activity in 2013 are looking more solid. so where will the money flow in the new year, that's at 11:20. and the outlook for u.s. credit market appe
. an agreement still seems pretty elusive at this moment. germany and french finance ministers have very different views about oversight of banks. and in britain, the chancellor george osbourne delivers his statement to parliament today. will be out in westminster soon. steve is out to give us more detailed analysis of what to expect. let's just go back to the eurozone. as you say, thin advances here. are we capping -- it's up against the yen as well. there's obviously been a big yen story. >> yeah, i think the euro/yen has had perhaps more to do with eu euro/dollar than anything else. the euro crosses in general have been story rather than euro/dollar and euro/yen at the forefront. i think the euro/yen forecast is overplayed in what japan will ultimately deliver on. but mum is pretty good. i think you still play for a little yen weakness. i think we'll see a lot of people trying to buy yen back because i don't think we'll get delivery in all these preelection promises. >> do we all think we know what the chancellor is going to say? >> judging by the many pages being given to it in the n
won't do particularly well, but germany and italy maybe next year have a potential surprise on the upside. >> how much of a surprise? >> it will not be a fast recovery. the ecb will be forced to do more, but they'll be drald dragged into it. so things will have to get worse before they act. so i don't really think -- >> what more actions? they have a t program waiting to go. what more actions are you talking about? >> the key policy rate for the ecb is likely indeed in the first quarter. they can take dpopt deposit rate negative. by the middle of next year, they'll be doing outright qe. i've been talking about this for ages. they haven't done it so maybe they won't do it. but i'm assuming that the outlook for inflation for the eurozone is -- >> how are they going to get around -- look, i know the bundes bank has a fear of hyper inflation. i just don't -- are they going to get around all the -- because even if they do it on the inflation mandate, are they going to get around the objections about outright money printing? germans would see it as that. >> they would see it as ou
, 1.63. and bond yields higher. they got kicked higher in germany post that survey which we broke on the show, as well. as far as the currency market, dollar bit under pressure ahead of the fed. euro/dollar 130.08. we were down late friday and early monday trade, as well. dollar/yen, highs polls suggest mr. erbe will be a clear win in japan. however big will the lead be and what influence tell have on the bank of japan. dollar and yen pressured by more q.e. talk. and aussillar three-month high. the prospect of q.e. boosting commodityets. canadian doing well. firm at 1.6122. we have more on the asian trading day out of singapore. >> reporter: hi, thank you, ross. most asian markets finished on a bright note. the shanghai composite recouped morning losses in positive territory. property stocks turned higher in the afternoon. stocks also rallied while investors await beijing's detailed plan on urban development. strengthening main line blue chips pushed the hang seng to a 16-month high. developers, industrials, and gaming stocks among the top gamers today. >>> in japan the country's
for germany, which is a positive and will be a good gain forward. but say order box, very weak. demand, very weak. business confidence very weak and this is going to be hitting activity indicators going forward. >> even though the manufacturing side of it disappointed, the services was stronger. while services is a big part of the economy, it's where we're trying to see the rebalancing in the german economy happen. from that point of view, probably a rather encouraging development. >> it is interesting. it's also very exportwise. what we saw on these numbers was german exports falling sharply again. and this is just signaling that global economic conditions, soft patch very weak, particularly for the region -- i'm sorry, within the eurozone itself. >> and it's consistent with the weakening global demand we're seeing out of japan and other areas this morning. but it's not necessarily -- if you look at the details of what this is telling us across the globe, frankly a point to deceleration in activities. >> and maybe the global economy will continue to expand. they will signal that china is co
there's not much growth to be expected from all europe. you know, obviously core europe like germany will grow with the global economy here. but at the moment, because of the issues in japan and all the issues in the u.s., europe and particularly euro is the one to send out is the strong demand. this is something that european policies and that european companies will need to work with. >> next year, although the eurozone economy is stag nating, we do expect a recovery in the global economy to which europe corporate sector is very well levered. it's that recover in the global back drop which allows margins to rise a little bit in eurozone, gives some type line growth and overall profit growth we think of around 9%. >> standing out in 2013, the biggest uncertainty right now has to do with around the housing market in the united states. some people are increasing their belief that you're going to see growth in the housing market from, you know, previous estimates are like 1.5% to % or even 4%. that is the unknown. because as everybody knows, housing has so many secondary and tertiary e
to the economy. >> i'm wondering whether germany as we look at -- they're just above sort of recession territory at the moment. i'm wondering whether if they get better growth out of asia, that will offset the weakness that they're seeing in europe enough to keep them above the pencil line. >> what we've seen so far with today's numbers is exports are declining very sharp. they'll need asia and the u.s. to offset some of that demand weakness, but again, the biggest market for most is the euro zone. if the eurozone is performing badly, that will have a thok-on effect for those countries. >> there's a number of strategists saying after the u.s. has sort of led equities for most of the year, they're now saying europe is the place to be. from i think really the question you have to ask yourself is when cash, equities, credit, government bonds, where do you want to be. and equity in my mind mind is absolutely not. you need good growth numbers to justify the equity markets going up. now, i think there's a lot of investors looking at the yields on ghoechlt bonds or credits and that's motivating them to
when they fund german business and the rest of the eu would like to do it and germany won't. seems like a bit of a sticking point to me. >> there are lots of sticking points. first of all, who is going to be the supervisor. for the eurozone, it would be the ecb. but if the ecb is the one big gorilla on the block sitting there in all the meetings so to speak for 17 country, then all the others even if they have their own voice will be slightly sidelined because there's one big power and all the others are split up. so there was a discussion should there be a eurozone supervisor, that doesn't quite work. do we need a some rice or who works for everybody he, where should that sit. brussels, also lots of question marks. and obviously then we get to the point where all the deposit insurances lie. every country has a different scheme. so i think we're a far cry away from having anything like a european banking union. >> i would tend to agree as ever. thank you for now. we'll catch you a little later. how much of this matters? investors say if we move toward a banking union, you can't have any
, not made in germany, not made in china, not made in the u.s. made in the world. 60% of trading manufacturers is in some -- the import content of exports at rate worldwide was 20% years ago, is 40% now and might be 60% 20 years from now. so it's a totally different world from the one many people have in mind where, you know, your country was producing country which my country was consuming and this was a sort of relationship, hands, export this, import that. in this world, the global value changes. you need to import in order to export and use your competitive advantage. so it's a different pattern and i think this has consequences which most governments have, i think, not yet really realized, which is why we've launched this initiative together with the oecd to sort of measure trading at a value and we will probably be unveiling the first batch of trade in value added numbers mid january. our statistical missions are working extremely hard. these guys won't have a great christmas break, but i think that will look very, very, very difference from what we have today. >> just in t
, australia, new zealand. in europe, the dax in germany is up and running. we are higher -- lower, rather, sorry, by half a percent. overnight in japan, the nikkei, that was higher. let's see the nikkei up about 1.5%. >>> now the holiday shopping season is drawing to a close. and early numbers suggest what started out strong is ending with a whimper. mastercard spending pulse unit estimate sales rose .7% over the past two months which would be the weakest pace since 2008 during the financial crisis. many analysts had expected sales to rise 3% to 4%. earlier we spoke with michael mcnamara from mastercard advisers about the impact the fiscal cliff may be having on consumers. listen in. >> beginning of december when we saw the sales numbers come down, confidence numbers come down. something the media coverage really has brought home and clarified what the fiscal cliff means to personal finance. and that debate really seems to be acting as -- almost creating a sense of gravity that's pulling down different elements of the economies. >> spending pulse says even online shopping which has posted
to germany, regulators are set to hold off on a probe into the deutsche bank. they have no plan to investigate carbon dioxide certificates. patricia has this story for us. deutsche bank is going to avoid charges on that one? >> that's something we cannot say for certain, but i'm quoting sources in the "wall street journal." at the moment, they do not seem to have a closer look at the wrong doings or right doings. but here, the public prosecutors had that big raid last wednesday. but one thing for sure, it seems that last night in a speech mr. fitch was very much eating humble pie, almost being apologetic about the culture especially during the financial crisis or let's say during the run up to the financial crisis. he's talking about reform, the cue of deutsche bank going forward in a way trying to plead for more information. however, my question is, if you have management that has been with the bank for so many years like fitch himself and like andrew jane himself, it is difficult to convince anybody that all of a sudden culture is to change. if you look at seeman aes couple of
. they were competing at the time against a bid from germany's deutsche bores. both of those offers ran up against tremendous scrutiny for u.s. and eu regulators. the euro nyse shares shot up 20%. >> how republicans plan to bring their tax bill to a vote today as tensions over fiscal cliff rise. it's still unclear what the plan b will look like. president obama says he will veto the bill, which has raced tax rates for people making more than $1 million a year. the president says he's puzzled by what's holding up talks and that house republicans should, quote, stop trying to score a point against hem. >> take the deal. you know, they will be able to claim that they have worked with me over the last two years to reduce the deficit more than any other deaf sigz reduction package, that we will have stabilized it for ten years. that is a significant achievement for them. she should be proud of it. but they continue to find ways to say no as opposed to saying yes. >> minority leader mitch mcconnell says there's still time to reach a deal by the end of the week. >> dan joins us now. dan, mitch mc
Search Results 0 to 18 of about 19